Donald Trump just rolled into the G7 summit in Evian-les-Bains with a massive geopolitical victory in his pocket, but European leaders aren't celebrating. They're sweating.
The ink is barely dry on a preliminary memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the 15-week U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. For months, that conflict choked off 20% of the world's crude oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz, driving global energy markets crazy. Trump landed in the French Alps declaring that Iran is "back in the rearview mirror." He wants everyone to know he has the wind at his back. Stock markets are surging, oil prices are dropping, and the White House is taking a victory lap.
But for European host Emmanuel Macron and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the relief is paired with deep anxiety. Now that Trump claims his hands are free, he's shifting his total focus to the war in Ukraine.
That shift is terrifying to U.S. allies who have spent more than four years watching Russia's full-scale invasion drag on. Trump has made it clear he wants a fast peace deal. He's cut back U.S. aid, leaving Europe to pick up the tab as the biggest financial and military provider for Kyiv. When Trump looks at Ukraine and calls the ongoing war "ridiculous," European diplomats hear a warning siren that Washington is preparing to force a settlement on Moscow's terms.
What is Actually Inside the Secret Iran Deal
Trump spent years blasting the 2015 Obama-era nuclear pact, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. He claimed it funneled billions into Tehran's coffers without stopping their nuclear ambitions. Now, he's defending a deal of his own making, and the similarities are making hawks on Capitol Hill very uncomfortable.
The White House hasn't released the full text of the memorandum yet—Trump says that happens after a formal signing this Friday—but the broad strokes are leaking out. It's a massive carrot-and-stick framework.
Tehran gets a potential release of its frozen foreign assets, significant sanctions relief, and a staggering $300 billion international fund to help rebuild the country. In exchange, Iran has to meet specific benchmarks to satisfy Washington. Top of the list is reopening the critical Strait of Hormuz waterway.
But the plan has massive, gaping holes that Congress is already tearing into.
- The Uranium Problem: Iran is currently sitting on an estimated 972 pounds (441 kilograms) of highly enriched uranium buried deep under its nuclear sites. The deal doesn't specify who will destroy or remove it.
- Verification: No one knows who will actually verify that Iran is complying with the rules. The old international observer framework is gone.
- The Demining Mess: Reopening the shipping lanes requires major demining operations. White House officials say the U.S. has the capacity to do it, and they're pressuring Britain and France to deploy naval forces to help clear the water.
Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, usually a tight Trump ally, is already skeptical. He's demanding that Congress review and vote on any final deal. Meanwhile, Democrats like Senator Mark Warner point out that Trump's new framework lacks the international coalition and strict observer guardrails that the old nuclear deal had.
The Scramble to Save Ukraine from a Forced Peace
With Iran pushed aside, the G7 working sessions turned into a frantic effort by European leaders to box Trump in before he can cut a solo deal with Vladimir Putin.
A morning working session with Zelenskyy wrapped up in just 75 minutes. That short timeline tells you everything about the tension in the room. Zelenskyy actually offered to meet Putin face-to-face during this G7 gathering to jumpstart legitimate peace talks, but the Kremlin ignored the invite. Putin is still wanted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes, meaning host country France would technically be forced to arrest him if he showed up anyway.
Trump doesn't care about the diplomatic scheduling drama. He's already planning a private, one-on-one bilateral meeting with Zelenskyy at the summit.
Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov let it slip that Trump has been emphasizing the need to end hostilities quickly. More importantly, Trump told Moscow he's ready to use his influence to push both European allies and Kyiv toward a settlement. Trump's top envoy, Steve Witkoff, and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, are scheduled to travel to Russia soon to keep those backchannels moving.
Europe sees the writing on the wall. If Trump cuts off the remaining American support, Ukraine's front lines could collapse. To counter this, America's allies are trying to create their own leverage. Britain just slapped fresh sanctions on Russia's "shadow fleet"—the network of hidden vessels Moscow uses to bypass Western caps on oil and liquefied natural gas. British troops even took the extreme step of seizing a Russian shadow fleet vessel in the English Channel. It's a clear signal to Trump that Europe isn't ready to just roll over and accept a Russian victory.
Tariffs on Wine and the Fracture of the G7
If you thought the geopolitical crises were enough to handle, Trump also brought his classic trade war playbook to the table.
Right before the summit started, Trump publicly threatened Macron with 100% tariffs on French wine. Why? Because France refuses to drop its digital tax on giant American tech companies.
Macron tried to play cool, telling reporters that tariffs don't do anyone any good, especially between allies. But the threat hung heavy over the dinner table. European leaders are realizing they can't rely on traditional alliance rules anymore. Between structural troop reductions and leaked media reports that the U.S. might withdraw air and naval assets from Europe, the continent is feeling isolated.
The G7 used to be a united front of major industrialized democracies setting the global agenda. This week in Evian-les-Bains, it feels like a defensive huddle. Leaders are trying to figure out how to manage an American president who is running his own foreign policy by instinct, cutting historic deals with adversaries, and telling his closest allies to fall in line or face economic penalties.
The real test comes over the next 60 days as the details of the Iran deal are hammered out and Trump's team heads to Moscow. If you're watching global politics, don't look at the polite group photos from the French Alps. Look at the private meeting rooms where the future of Ukraine's borders and the global oil supply are being rewritten on the back of a napkin.
